Bayesian probabilistic population projections and its applications in R

Seminar no. 1200
21 December 2022 Time 12.30 – 13.30 hrs.

Speaker: Nitchakarn Kaewbuadee Ph.D. Student in Applied Demography and Social Research (International Program)


The United Nations Population Division used a Bayesian approach for probabilistic population projections in the preparation of the World Population Prospects. An intensive hands-on workshop on probabilistic population projections was held in Pattaya, Chonburi province, Thailand, from November 7 to 11, 2022, jointly organized by NESDC, the United Nations DESA, and UNFPA Thailand. Professionals from government agencies, academia, UN agencies, and the Lao Statistics Bureau participated in the workshop. The goal of the workshop is to introduce the Bayesian probabilistic approach, specifically the models currently used by the United Nations Population Division to develop national population projections. This in-house seminar session aims to share workshop experience and brief overview of the approaches to probabilistic population projections. Furthermore, this session will briefly introduce an application of Bayesian probabilistic population projections using R packages: bayesTFR, bayesLife, and bayesPop, which these packages will allow any users to reproduce probabilistic projections, including total fertility and life expectancy projections by using their own data.