Epidemiological Modelling

Seminar No. 1183
24 สิงหาคม 2565 เวลา 12.30 – 13.30 น.

Speaker: Professor Dr. Lennert Veerman & Dr. Leopold Aminde


Health In All Policies: Valuing the health benefits of active transport ิby:Professor Dr. Lennert Veerman Synopsis: Physical activity promotes health and reduces the risk of non-communicable disease, but many people find it hard to incorporate physical activity into their daily lives. Walking, cycling and other forms of active transport present an opportunity to lift the activity levels of urban populations. However, the current infrastructure in Australian cities promotes car use and often makes walking and cycling inefficient and sometimes dangerous. Among government departments and planners, there is growing awareness of the potential for urban design and transport planning to promote health. Cost-benefit analyses (CBA) play an important role in deciding on investments. In this seminar, I will report on our search for the best method to incorporate the health benefits of physical activity in planning decisions in New South Wales, Australia, in a collaborative effort with the NSW Ministry of Health. ———- Modelling the health and cost impacts of excess dietary sodium intake in selected low- and middle-income countries by:Dr.Leopold Aminde Synopsis: Non-communicable diseases (NCD) are responsible for nearly 80% of the premature deaths in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC). Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the foremost contributor of that burden, mostly driven by high blood pressure. Despite multiple interventions proposed in the WHO NCD Global Action Plan, many LMICs still grapple with implementation, in part due to the absence of context-specific evidence. This presentation briefly reviews the burden of NCDs in LMICs and the role of sodium in the development of CVD. With examples from Africa and Southeast Asia, we use proportional multi-state lifetable Markov models to estimate the long-term health and economic impacts of population-wide dietary sodium reduction. Our findings demonstrate that sodium reduction is a promising and cost-effective strategy for preventing CVDs and should be prioritised in broader efforts to reduce premature deaths from NCDs by 2030.